On September 23th, 2022, Dr. WANG Chunzai, researcher in the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, CAS was invited to make a Nanqiang Lecture at MEL. Prof. CHAI Fei hosted the lecture.
Abstract:
A heatwave event is defined as daily maximum temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile of a threshold for at least 3 days. In recent years, extreme heatwaves occurred frequently in the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in extensive loss of life, a spate of horrific wildfires, and and other disastrous events. This talk uses observational data and climate models to show why extreme heatwave events occurred in the past and what extreme heatwaves will look like in the future. Several atmospheric circulation patterns are identified in association with the development, maturation and decay phases of the heatwaves. Climate models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 show that greenhouse gases are the main reason for the long-term increase of average daily maximum temperatures during the past and in the future. Model simulations show that the occurrence probability of extreme heatwave events will increase 32% in the coming years and the summer will last 175 days under a scenario of global warming by 2100. The talk also discussed the potential roles of the ocean in extreme weather events and briefly reviewed the impacts of three-ocean interactions (the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans) on climate and extreme weather events.
